* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 07/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 12 13 10 11 12 12 14 21 25 27 30 26 20 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -6 -2 0 -3 -1 -1 2 -5 -2 -2 3 4 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 187 171 186 196 218 208 218 223 234 205 202 211 213 217 228 222 213 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 25.5 25.9 25.5 23.9 23.2 22.7 22.4 21.7 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.0 19.7 19.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 129 120 124 120 103 95 89 85 76 70 68 65 59 58 60 77 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 59 59 55 49 42 39 33 29 23 21 18 15 13 12 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -24 -22 -20 -22 -19 -33 -43 -43 -57 -66 -74 -83 -95 -81 -63 -32 200 MB DIV 15 18 24 23 17 9 0 -2 -24 -10 -22 -10 -11 -1 -16 -12 -9 700-850 TADV 4 7 6 2 2 8 5 11 8 3 0 -3 -9 -13 -13 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1314 1357 1421 1496 1578 1674 1779 1894 1942 1886 1790 1661 1507 1374 1315 1398 1592 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 18.3 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.3 23.2 24.1 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 121.1 122.5 123.8 125.1 127.7 129.8 131.7 133.0 133.6 133.3 132.5 131.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 13 11 9 7 5 5 7 7 6 4 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 11. 6. 1. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -25. -31. -37. -44. -51. -60. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 119.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 07/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 07/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##