* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 07/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 39 39 38 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 39 39 38 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 36 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 7 10 12 15 18 18 15 24 26 27 27 34 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 0 -3 -5 -1 -2 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 245 238 202 192 192 209 200 206 210 202 196 209 212 218 219 220 219 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.0 24.0 22.6 22.8 22.3 22.0 22.0 21.8 21.5 20.8 20.1 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 133 124 115 104 89 90 84 80 79 77 74 68 61 59 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 64 61 64 65 63 60 57 52 45 43 39 35 30 26 23 21 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -26 -31 -20 -13 -10 -14 -19 -31 -45 -51 -61 -76 -76 -81 -84 -82 200 MB DIV 39 39 25 20 43 28 10 -2 0 -17 -2 -20 -17 -1 16 10 20 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 7 4 2 6 5 10 7 6 3 0 0 -4 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 1198 1261 1312 1370 1437 1604 1721 1870 2005 2061 2041 2007 1947 1871 1744 1602 1456 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.2 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.5 119.9 121.4 122.8 125.6 128.3 130.7 132.8 134.3 135.3 135.7 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 7 6 4 4 4 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. -2. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -39. -47. -58. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 117.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 07/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 20.5% 18.8% 17.7% 10.6% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 8.0% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.6% 7.9% 6.7% 3.8% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 07/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##