* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/30/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 32 33 35 35 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 32 33 35 35 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 3 7 14 17 17 17 18 21 26 25 24 29 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -5 -3 -4 -1 1 -3 -4 -3 0 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 223 262 269 239 208 203 201 190 204 202 199 205 210 208 209 216 221 SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.5 24.4 23.2 22.7 22.7 22.0 22.1 21.9 21.6 21.2 20.5 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 145 143 142 137 130 108 95 89 88 80 80 78 75 71 64 59 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 67 67 64 62 56 49 45 42 40 34 29 24 21 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -8 -21 -27 -22 -5 -7 -14 -29 -34 -50 -50 -66 -97 -101 -91 -84 200 MB DIV 24 47 62 52 35 65 19 25 10 2 -11 -17 -5 -14 9 5 27 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 6 1 5 4 9 8 7 6 2 -1 -3 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 1196 1256 1323 1382 1425 1575 1703 1840 1967 2064 2066 1994 1985 1909 1803 1684 1551 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.7 117.2 118.8 120.3 121.7 124.5 127.3 129.9 132.0 133.8 135.0 135.8 135.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 14 14 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 11 15 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 15. 16. 16. 14. 10. 6. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. -0. -7. -15. -21. -27. -32. -38. -48. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 115.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/30/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 17.6% 17.2% 16.3% 0.0% 15.1% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.9% 5.3% 2.7% 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.2% 7.5% 6.3% 0.3% 5.6% 4.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/30/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##