* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 50 47 39 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 50 47 39 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 37 37 35 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 6 9 8 8 15 17 20 18 18 18 23 21 25 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -5 -2 -5 -6 -7 -2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 114 153 179 196 209 233 193 188 195 201 199 192 199 212 204 215 209 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.8 26.4 25.6 23.7 23.3 23.2 23.5 23.2 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 153 149 145 130 121 101 96 95 97 93 88 88 89 88 85 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 68 67 67 63 60 56 50 46 43 40 40 35 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 10 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 4 -1 -3 -7 12 2 -11 -20 -23 -32 -38 -38 -62 -90 -111 200 MB DIV 15 0 12 37 73 74 74 65 9 23 7 -10 -12 -9 -6 6 19 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 4 2 2 7 0 5 3 7 7 9 8 7 5 0 LAND (KM) 947 1062 1106 1151 1224 1387 1563 1719 1879 2047 2115 1923 1777 1657 1605 1585 1594 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.7 17.5 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.9 114.7 116.4 118.0 121.4 124.6 127.5 130.2 132.5 134.6 136.4 137.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 16 16 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 32 17 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 1. -0. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 20. 17. 9. 2. -5. -12. -18. -23. -30. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 111.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 20.4% 18.2% 17.0% 0.0% 17.2% 14.6% 9.5% Logistic: 10.8% 29.0% 14.7% 9.3% 5.4% 6.1% 2.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 17.6% 11.1% 8.8% 1.9% 7.8% 5.6% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##