* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 46 50 47 42 34 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 46 50 47 42 34 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 37 36 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 5 9 9 10 16 19 18 19 17 19 22 20 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 -5 -4 -1 0 1 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 96 143 181 197 227 212 192 189 193 207 199 199 211 212 211 202 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.0 26.8 24.9 23.3 23.3 23.0 23.3 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 149 153 147 134 114 97 97 92 95 86 83 83 81 78 76 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 67 68 64 63 59 54 49 45 42 39 38 35 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 7 -1 -2 -11 -6 7 -15 -15 -28 -28 -45 -46 -70 -111 -130 200 MB DIV 30 18 -1 5 37 90 57 51 24 33 6 0 -14 -22 -13 -2 14 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 3 6 2 9 4 8 6 10 6 10 10 7 4 0 LAND (KM) 837 931 1033 1057 1118 1272 1439 1613 1759 1907 2031 2072 1999 1937 1919 1948 1839 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 111.1 112.8 114.5 116.3 119.7 123.1 126.3 129.1 131.4 133.2 134.6 135.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 18 17 17 17 15 13 10 8 6 6 5 4 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 12 28 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 14. 11. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 17. 12. 4. -2. -9. -17. -23. -30. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 109.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.4% 16.9% 16.1% 0.0% 16.0% 14.0% 9.9% Logistic: 8.9% 25.5% 14.4% 7.9% 3.1% 4.9% 1.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 14.9% 10.5% 8.0% 1.0% 7.0% 5.2% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##