* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 55 59 59 57 52 48 48 48 47 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 55 59 59 57 52 48 48 48 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 38 38 37 35 33 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 1 3 7 5 5 1 5 6 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -3 0 0 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 329 122 129 171 243 268 160 167 130 178 227 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.8 25.6 25.2 24.6 24.1 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 151 149 153 147 139 133 120 116 110 102 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 69 69 68 69 71 69 67 62 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 10 11 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 10 9 2 -3 -12 -6 -16 -29 -43 -46 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 32 14 4 17 66 74 104 46 4 -11 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 2 0 3 2 4 5 3 5 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 774 834 909 1019 1068 1180 1354 1568 1718 1913 2147 2289 2175 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 17 15 14 16 14 12 13 12 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 17 17 12 24 13 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 25. 29. 29. 27. 22. 18. 18. 18. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.97 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 20.2% 18.8% 18.0% 0.0% 18.0% 16.6% 19.4% Logistic: 7.7% 33.3% 20.6% 11.5% 3.0% 10.2% 6.9% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 18.6% 13.2% 9.8% 1.0% 9.5% 7.9% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##