* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 47 45 42 38 34 31 28 25 21 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 47 45 42 38 34 31 28 25 21 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 36 33 29 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 1 2 5 14 13 14 18 18 18 19 14 19 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 0 3 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 3 13 4 116 193 231 247 222 220 217 214 221 217 215 231 210 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 26.7 25.0 25.0 23.6 23.1 23.0 23.6 23.4 23.0 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 152 152 150 133 116 115 100 94 92 98 95 91 92 91 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 71 69 66 64 58 56 52 46 42 40 39 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 15 19 15 5 2 -13 4 -7 -12 -23 -27 -42 -54 -50 -72 200 MB DIV 14 30 60 59 37 24 53 74 62 44 18 7 -13 -9 -6 -14 5 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -1 3 2 6 1 3 4 5 3 5 10 9 11 7 5 LAND (KM) 618 662 715 776 861 1002 1152 1330 1530 1719 1878 2047 2114 1954 1820 1732 1698 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.1 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 105.4 107.3 109.1 110.9 114.4 117.8 121.3 124.6 127.9 130.5 132.7 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 17 16 15 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 15 14 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 16. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 15. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 103.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.90 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 24.8% 21.1% 19.9% 0.0% 19.8% 16.8% 12.9% Logistic: 9.4% 42.9% 30.4% 19.9% 4.9% 19.1% 6.5% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 24.6% 17.5% 13.4% 1.7% 13.3% 7.9% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##