* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 34 40 45 43 41 39 37 35 32 29 27 23 18 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 34 40 45 43 41 39 37 35 32 29 27 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 35 34 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 7 5 6 4 6 13 10 12 10 10 8 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 1 0 -1 -6 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 64 46 36 49 72 56 237 245 255 266 271 298 304 309 277 279 246 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.2 26.6 25.4 24.8 22.6 22.8 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.4 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 152 152 153 149 148 132 119 113 89 89 83 80 77 72 69 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 73 74 71 67 62 61 56 52 46 42 38 34 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -3 4 8 0 -9 -17 -27 -18 -37 -40 -48 -52 -74 -82 -87 200 MB DIV -16 -3 27 40 44 31 30 24 49 22 5 -12 -20 -29 -13 -33 -33 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 4 0 6 0 10 8 14 11 11 7 7 4 -1 LAND (KM) 577 622 659 693 749 872 958 1098 1255 1431 1542 1621 1667 1688 1671 1627 1552 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.4 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 102.7 104.5 106.4 108.1 111.3 114.3 117.4 120.6 123.6 126.2 128.1 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 19 18 17 16 14 16 15 15 12 9 6 5 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 15 14 13 15 11 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 23. 23. 20. 17. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 4. 10. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -7. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 101.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.66 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.4% 13.9% 13.0% 0.0% 14.4% 14.2% 12.3% Logistic: 1.1% 8.9% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 2.1% 1.4% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 8.2% 5.9% 4.9% 0.1% 5.5% 5.2% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##