* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 06/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 46 50 50 53 51 46 40 33 28 24 19 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 46 50 50 53 51 46 40 33 28 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 38 41 43 44 43 38 31 25 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 7 8 7 2 2 3 5 2 10 10 17 15 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -2 0 0 5 2 0 -3 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 77 63 77 67 30 93 2 238 244 284 280 285 287 289 307 294 276 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.5 27.6 25.9 25.5 23.7 22.5 22.3 22.4 22.0 21.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 153 152 150 152 142 124 120 101 88 85 85 80 76 70 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 74 74 71 67 63 59 58 54 51 46 43 39 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 11 10 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 7 0 -15 3 -3 -11 -27 -40 -29 -32 -32 -35 -47 -62 -82 200 MB DIV -6 0 -10 8 16 28 38 22 2 15 -1 0 -23 -26 -27 -29 -32 700-850 TADV -4 -2 1 0 -2 2 0 5 1 6 10 10 10 14 12 11 9 LAND (KM) 529 520 536 577 607 670 784 892 971 1092 1258 1405 1521 1641 1715 1721 1649 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.9 100.3 101.9 103.5 107.0 110.2 113.3 116.2 119.1 122.1 125.0 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 13 10 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 30 22 17 12 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 24. 25. 25. 23. 20. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 20. 23. 21. 16. 10. 3. -2. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 97.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.1% 14.0% 12.8% 0.0% 13.9% 14.0% 13.2% Logistic: 0.5% 4.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.5% 5.3% 4.6% 0.2% 5.0% 4.8% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##