* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132022 09/16/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 45 48 52 57 60 62 64 65 65 65 65 67 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 19 19 18 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 61 61 60 74 67 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 28.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 157 159 159 153 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 88 89 87 86 86 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 64 76 87 97 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 144 117 109 118 92 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -8 -10 -13 -14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 199 152 109 66 23 -22 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 18.1 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.6 98.4 99.1 99.9 101.8 103.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 17 19 19 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 96.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132022 LESTER 09/16/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.04 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -4.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.8% 15.1% 13.8% 7.8% 15.4% 15.3% 17.8% Logistic: 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 3.0% 24.1% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% Consensus: 2.0% 7.3% 5.3% 4.7% 2.6% 6.1% 13.1% 10.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132022 LESTER 09/16/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##