* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/09/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 33 29 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 33 29 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 33 28 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 3 5 6 9 10 12 14 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -4 -4 -6 -3 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 299 317 256 281 268 261 253 254 282 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.5 22.6 22.0 21.3 20.2 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.5 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 87 80 72 61 67 67 69 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -51.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.5 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 62 63 56 50 43 41 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 17 16 14 13 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 63 41 33 28 10 -3 10 -14 -11 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 10 16 25 19 15 -11 4 -16 -16 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -9 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -5 -8 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 48 105 161 212 264 316 408 497 527 501 450 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.5 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.6 31.1 30.3 29.7 29.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.3 118.2 118.9 119.6 120.6 121.7 121.9 121.7 121.1 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 3 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -21. -26. -30. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -30. -38. -47. -51. -54. -58. -62. -66. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.9 116.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/09/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/09/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##