* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 36 33 30 25 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 36 33 30 25 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 44 40 36 34 30 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 2 4 9 11 13 15 17 13 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 3 3 1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 212 224 289 252 270 242 242 249 273 271 252 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.4 22.5 20.9 20.1 20.7 20.8 21.4 21.7 21.8 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 104 101 96 86 68 59 65 66 73 76 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 61 62 60 52 45 41 37 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 18 18 17 15 15 13 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 75 63 41 32 17 -1 7 -6 -7 -4 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 25 22 21 28 4 -7 -10 -3 -1 -22 -7 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -5 -6 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -9 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 60 52 87 146 204 301 355 453 511 527 485 424 371 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.8 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.4 30.7 30.2 29.5 28.7 28.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.3 117.1 118.0 118.8 120.2 121.1 121.8 122.0 121.6 120.7 119.9 119.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 5 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -24. -29. -33. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -25. -28. -35. -43. -51. -57. -64. -67. -70. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.0 115.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##