* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 88 85 77 64 49 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 88 85 77 64 49 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 87 79 70 54 43 35 29 25 23 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 10 8 6 9 5 7 10 14 13 16 12 11 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 4 8 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 265 284 272 226 215 272 234 260 223 233 228 250 244 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.5 25.5 24.1 23.5 23.9 23.1 22.9 22.1 21.2 21.0 21.2 22.6 23.2 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 119 105 98 101 93 90 81 71 68 71 86 91 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 74 72 68 60 60 59 60 52 44 35 31 27 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 37 34 28 21 16 11 8 8 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 85 77 83 84 82 70 35 23 -5 0 -5 8 13 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 65 58 50 78 28 16 29 7 -7 0 -14 -9 -16 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 10 13 13 15 4 -12 -5 -7 -10 -9 -10 -7 -7 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 326 268 183 157 118 41 100 178 269 373 462 540 568 595 631 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.7 25.9 27.9 29.3 30.5 30.8 30.8 30.5 29.8 28.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.1 113.4 113.9 114.3 115.4 116.6 118.1 119.3 120.5 121.5 121.9 121.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 12 10 9 7 5 5 4 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -22. -29. -37. -44. -50. -57. -61. -64. -68. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -3. -7. -16. -26. -37. -41. -41. -38. -36. -34. -32. -30. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -5. -13. -26. -41. -54. -69. -79. -85. -89. -92. -96.-100.-101.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.5 112.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/07/22 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##