* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 84 88 97 98 91 75 59 47 36 29 22 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 84 88 97 98 91 75 59 47 36 29 22 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 82 84 86 90 87 75 58 46 39 35 31 28 25 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 16 13 4 5 11 8 5 6 11 13 20 17 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 -2 -2 0 2 2 1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -8 -5 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 11 4 12 26 39 290 273 245 225 239 238 260 236 270 264 257 227 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.6 27.6 26.6 24.8 24.0 23.5 22.9 23.1 20.7 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 148 146 151 140 130 111 102 96 90 92 66 65 64 66 67 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 83 82 83 76 68 60 61 60 60 52 44 36 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 38 39 40 45 46 44 36 29 24 20 18 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 81 77 86 89 88 111 87 110 88 78 48 33 18 25 23 29 42 200 MB DIV 134 112 110 94 94 93 48 43 26 -14 4 5 -12 -3 0 -19 -15 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -12 -10 -4 4 13 20 11 -4 -8 -7 -8 -11 -3 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 485 525 569 511 458 379 263 212 133 109 170 265 430 470 431 475 616 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.8 22.7 24.8 26.4 27.9 29.1 29.9 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.4 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.9 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.1 117.3 118.8 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 5 2 2 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 15 13 19 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -26. -31. -37. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 12. 3. -7. -14. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 23. 16. -0. -16. -28. -39. -46. -53. -60. -66. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.6 108.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.11 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 17.6% 15.7% 15.0% 8.8% 13.7% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 4.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.7% 5.9% 5.3% 3.0% 5.0% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 25.0% 46.0% 39.0% 26.0% 22.0% 24.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##