* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 68 74 82 92 99 98 94 77 61 49 40 34 27 21 17 V (KT) LAND 55 61 68 74 82 92 99 98 94 77 61 49 40 34 27 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 70 74 80 85 85 76 59 45 37 33 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 19 21 18 8 2 11 9 13 2 7 11 8 11 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 1 0 1 -4 5 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -6 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 17 16 12 6 16 55 358 291 267 243 238 212 259 220 266 275 293 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.5 27.9 26.7 25.1 24.0 23.3 23.1 21.0 20.9 21.0 21.0 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 145 148 147 149 143 131 114 102 95 93 70 67 67 68 63 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 82 83 82 84 79 72 65 62 61 62 51 44 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 35 37 41 43 48 48 48 41 33 28 25 23 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 81 80 80 77 87 92 106 100 119 104 99 63 48 29 24 17 9 200 MB DIV 130 137 150 138 123 80 101 79 60 24 11 18 -2 -1 -16 -17 -9 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -6 -12 -5 -1 11 24 31 -1 -8 -9 -3 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 482 496 530 562 599 476 394 293 205 137 138 253 396 488 523 566 593 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.9 17.5 19.0 20.6 22.5 24.5 26.2 27.7 28.8 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.8 108.7 109.6 110.5 111.9 112.9 113.7 114.3 115.1 116.4 118.1 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 14 16 12 18 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 389 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 16. 21. 24. 13. 2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 27. 37. 44. 43. 39. 22. 6. -6. -15. -21. -28. -34. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.4 106.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.88 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 31.9% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 16.7% 10.9% Logistic: 5.0% 25.6% 6.3% 4.8% 2.3% 14.1% 21.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 6.2% 20.2% 9.6% 1.6% 0.9% 12.2% 13.1% 4.1% DTOPS: 38.0% 64.0% 48.0% 41.0% 25.0% 56.0% 26.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##