* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 72 81 91 100 102 98 89 73 57 48 43 35 30 25 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 72 81 91 100 102 98 89 73 57 48 43 35 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 65 72 78 86 91 87 78 65 51 41 35 32 27 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 12 19 17 9 4 9 13 9 5 11 7 12 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 0 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 22 22 29 15 17 24 33 323 244 256 239 205 263 228 247 236 242 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.1 26.7 25.1 23.9 23.5 23.2 22.3 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 149 150 152 148 145 131 114 102 97 94 83 66 66 67 63 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.7 -49.8 -50.3 -49.7 -50.2 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 82 81 82 83 81 75 68 64 64 63 60 56 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 34 36 41 43 47 49 48 46 38 31 28 27 24 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 79 89 88 91 90 98 99 115 105 100 114 73 60 58 45 43 47 200 MB DIV 72 110 120 135 124 88 79 98 82 57 19 18 11 6 0 -3 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -8 -2 -1 -3 0 3 16 21 5 -3 -7 -12 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 401 414 437 466 505 472 356 293 168 87 118 161 309 400 452 505 560 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.8 20.6 22.3 24.4 26.5 28.5 29.7 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.9 107.8 108.7 109.5 111.2 112.4 113.2 113.9 114.7 115.9 117.5 119.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 17 22 23 16 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 354 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 10. 12. 19. 26. 29. 25. 15. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 31. 41. 50. 52. 48. 39. 23. 7. -2. -7. -15. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 106.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 24.3% 21.5% 21.0% 0.0% 19.6% 16.1% 11.6% Logistic: 4.8% 24.9% 7.7% 5.5% 1.4% 11.8% 30.7% 4.5% Bayesian: 3.5% 14.1% 11.5% 2.4% 0.8% 2.3% 0.4% 3.1% Consensus: 6.7% 21.1% 13.6% 9.7% 0.7% 11.3% 15.8% 6.4% DTOPS: 22.0% 67.0% 46.0% 29.0% 16.0% 48.0% 63.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##