* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122022 09/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 43 51 62 77 92 103 111 108 104 92 78 65 56 51 46 V (KT) LAND 30 36 43 51 62 77 92 103 111 108 104 92 78 65 56 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 59 74 86 92 89 78 63 48 37 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 13 14 12 10 12 10 6 8 14 7 10 10 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 2 3 0 2 3 -1 0 5 4 5 -1 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 28 33 13 26 23 31 25 28 31 331 245 247 220 253 262 264 265 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.4 28.2 28.8 26.8 25.9 24.2 23.9 23.4 23.1 23.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 156 155 149 146 153 132 123 105 101 94 91 92 74 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.1 -50.5 -49.8 -50.3 -49.5 -49.7 -49.4 -49.9 -49.6 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 85 84 83 83 84 83 82 77 71 68 65 64 55 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 21 24 30 33 40 46 50 50 49 44 36 27 20 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 89 95 88 100 80 84 89 91 92 111 115 120 97 71 33 28 7 200 MB DIV 100 109 74 74 92 135 129 105 99 70 53 70 -9 14 28 21 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -6 -8 -7 -5 9 23 24 1 -3 -2 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 335 356 384 392 421 443 504 559 411 288 129 98 60 132 161 274 461 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 9 6 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 17 17 20 17 14 31 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 26. 24. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 35. 46. 46. 43. 34. 22. 10. 3. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 32. 47. 62. 73. 81. 78. 74. 63. 48. 35. 26. 21. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 100.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 TWELVE 09/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 23.7% 19.0% 17.8% 0.0% 18.8% 27.4% 38.2% Logistic: 8.3% 48.8% 21.5% 15.0% 2.9% 41.6% 62.6% 26.8% Bayesian: 1.7% 16.0% 9.9% 2.6% 0.4% 3.2% 6.3% 5.7% Consensus: 6.6% 29.5% 16.8% 11.8% 1.1% 21.2% 32.1% 23.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 43.0% 26.0% 23.0% 13.0% 25.0% 51.0% 47.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 TWELVE 09/04/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##