* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112022 09/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 32 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 32 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 14 12 14 18 21 29 31 32 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 1 3 2 3 0 2 4 2 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 247 252 245 242 229 205 189 189 207 215 227 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.4 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 97 80 78 77 77 75 79 84 85 86 88 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -49.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 58 56 50 45 39 33 30 28 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 65 40 55 65 55 80 77 77 68 79 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -15 -19 -4 2 -2 -7 5 3 6 5 -13 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 10 11 3 5 4 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 222 301 408 528 626 836 1003 1176 1319 1429 1498 1593 1712 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.9 119.1 120.5 121.8 124.3 126.8 129.0 130.7 132.0 133.0 134.2 135.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -5. -13. -19. -23. -27. -29. -32. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -31. -41. -52. -61. -70. -78. -83. -86. -91. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.4 116.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 JAVIER 09/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 JAVIER 09/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##