* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112022 09/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 31 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 31 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 15 10 11 15 22 27 30 29 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 4 4 3 -1 5 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 238 238 254 247 228 202 179 177 196 212 227 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.1 23.2 21.7 21.5 21.1 21.3 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.6 22.8 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 105 95 79 77 73 75 78 83 86 86 88 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 61 56 48 44 39 34 31 31 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 101 67 50 55 67 88 88 89 86 77 65 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -2 0 -16 -4 -4 -6 -1 -8 4 2 -2 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 12 5 7 4 0 4 2 1 1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 205 240 318 437 545 745 943 1107 1282 1422 1528 1620 1730 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.8 118.1 119.4 120.7 123.2 125.9 128.2 130.4 132.1 133.2 134.2 135.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -3. -9. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -18. -24. -31. -41. -51. -60. -68. -75. -79. -82. -85. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.7 115.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##