* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112022 09/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 37 33 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 37 33 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 38 35 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 13 14 10 15 19 24 28 30 29 30 30 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 2 1 5 0 5 0 2 2 4 5 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 225 233 242 251 233 227 193 175 184 204 221 230 227 217 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.3 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.8 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 114 106 96 79 77 77 76 79 85 86 87 89 93 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 66 64 62 59 51 48 44 39 36 34 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 15 13 13 11 11 9 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 88 92 68 46 65 64 91 83 87 71 70 44 20 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -18 0 -8 -16 14 -8 -13 4 -3 4 -2 -7 -19 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 11 6 9 1 4 7 2 2 1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 211 214 306 426 626 859 1038 1190 1333 1467 1581 1665 1808 1862 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.5 116.6 118.0 119.3 121.8 124.6 127.1 129.2 131.0 132.6 133.8 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -23. -29. -40. -48. -56. -63. -69. -73. -77. -81. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.7 114.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##