* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112022 09/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 43 40 35 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 43 40 35 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 43 40 34 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 9 11 13 9 11 12 14 21 21 22 29 39 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 1 0 3 0 4 4 3 -2 3 1 4 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 177 215 228 241 247 234 223 184 168 185 212 235 228 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.3 25.0 23.9 22.8 21.9 21.2 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.6 23.2 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 127 114 102 91 81 74 74 77 81 84 86 87 93 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -51.4 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 66 64 63 57 51 47 42 37 35 35 29 24 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 15 15 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 88 95 78 61 67 84 92 90 85 79 72 58 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 -11 -15 -4 -7 1 -10 -5 -9 0 13 2 -5 -19 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 13 6 9 8 -2 3 1 2 2 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 196 227 236 257 298 519 741 951 1125 1243 1318 1430 1618 1792 1931 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.6 117.7 120.2 122.9 125.5 127.8 129.5 130.8 132.2 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 7 9 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -26. -33. -39. -44. -50. -58. -65. -68. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.5 113.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##