* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112022 09/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 45 46 43 41 38 34 31 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 45 46 43 41 38 34 31 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 41 39 34 29 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 0 5 7 3 3 3 5 9 11 16 19 22 31 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 2 2 6 6 4 6 3 1 -3 1 3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 323 337 215 163 184 121 205 286 183 184 166 175 193 215 230 238 231 SST (C) 29.9 29.1 28.2 27.6 27.0 24.9 23.3 22.2 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.5 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 156 147 141 134 113 96 85 78 80 81 86 89 88 89 89 89 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 78 77 74 74 73 70 62 57 50 46 42 35 34 33 31 28 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 18 17 17 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 56 71 91 97 106 119 91 93 91 96 117 114 117 100 89 59 38 200 MB DIV 84 64 81 86 45 -21 3 9 -11 -6 -14 14 17 0 11 -8 -23 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 0 0 7 -2 7 5 8 1 2 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 405 351 328 324 279 379 468 667 926 1167 1337 1479 1600 1701 1797 1894 1961 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.1 22.9 24.3 25.2 25.7 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.0 112.6 113.3 114.1 116.3 118.7 121.3 124.0 126.4 128.5 130.4 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 29 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 10. 11. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -9. -13. -18. -22. -28. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.5 111.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 JAVIER 09/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 30.4% 23.0% 22.0% 13.3% 19.2% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 17.5% 9.9% 5.4% 0.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 16.6% 11.2% 9.2% 4.6% 7.3% 5.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 JAVIER 09/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##