* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102022 08/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 37 36 35 33 32 33 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 37 36 35 33 32 33 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 18 17 16 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 2 4 4 6 6 10 10 9 11 11 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 113 142 169 166 202 196 228 236 249 225 242 237 230 218 230 217 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.2 25.5 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 132 131 125 116 114 115 114 111 111 113 116 121 119 117 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 52 55 55 55 58 57 53 52 48 46 44 42 42 41 38 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 34 37 41 42 39 58 34 26 26 17 29 26 24 13 -2 200 MB DIV 16 32 59 70 64 41 8 -10 -26 -27 -1 -5 -24 -27 -21 -11 -28 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 2 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1495 1548 1598 1637 1680 1805 1959 2125 2055 1921 1788 1658 1539 1431 1316 1221 1133 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.1 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.5 125.4 126.3 127.3 129.4 131.5 133.5 135.2 136.5 137.8 139.1 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 123.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102022 IVETTE 08/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.7% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.1% 6.4% 0.4% 0.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102022 IVETTE 08/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##