* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102022 08/20/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 36 38 43 46 47 46 45 43 41 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 36 38 43 46 47 46 45 43 41 42 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 33 33 31 30 28 26 24 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 6 5 4 1 1 2 4 3 5 4 10 10 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -5 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 67 90 120 97 119 119 275 246 300 280 315 241 242 226 217 220 226 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 25.9 25.1 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 137 133 123 114 119 118 116 116 117 118 123 122 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 57 56 59 54 57 53 51 50 48 46 45 42 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 44 37 39 53 29 53 54 48 41 33 26 32 25 15 2 200 MB DIV 22 17 34 67 70 38 27 0 -8 -32 -18 -2 -17 -31 -13 -20 -25 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 -2 -2 -3 1 2 2 0 1 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1445 1494 1553 1617 1653 1766 1919 2098 2115 1960 1830 1700 1593 1495 1407 1337 1250 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.8 17.5 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.6 124.4 125.3 126.3 128.4 130.6 132.8 134.7 136.2 137.5 138.8 139.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 12 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 13. 18. 21. 22. 21. 20. 18. 16. 17. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 122.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102022 IVETTE 08/20/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.9% 3.3% 1.7% 0.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 7.9% 5.0% 0.6% 0.1% 6.0% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102022 IVETTE 08/20/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##