* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/12/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 46 53 58 60 61 59 58 57 55 53 52 50 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 46 53 58 60 61 59 58 57 55 53 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 39 42 43 43 41 39 37 36 34 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 6 7 11 10 10 10 14 11 14 14 12 12 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 -1 2 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 74 78 88 74 61 61 87 108 78 100 118 114 121 136 133 115 121 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.6 26.0 26.2 25.9 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 149 147 149 152 146 141 137 128 122 125 122 123 128 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 75 76 77 72 70 65 67 62 61 57 54 49 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 11 12 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 22 21 27 25 27 24 15 39 45 61 69 73 62 57 53 200 MB DIV 38 43 54 49 52 40 53 34 16 14 42 -4 -8 9 17 -1 -33 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -3 -6 0 -1 0 2 2 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 569 587 587 593 631 702 657 695 786 849 968 1129 1298 1463 1601 1719 1842 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.8 18.7 18.3 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.1 107.8 108.6 109.5 111.3 113.0 114.4 116.0 117.4 119.0 120.7 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 11 12 11 8 8 5 1 0 2 0 0 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 28. 33. 35. 36. 34. 33. 32. 30. 28. 27. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 106.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.55 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 34.2% 20.1% 12.7% 6.5% 27.1% 30.9% 28.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.1% 20.6% 13.1% 4.4% 2.3% 15.0% 15.6% 9.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##