* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 01/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 32 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 32 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 34 31 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 14 17 41 62 69 69 50 57 70 60 49 53 51 58 72 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -9 -16 -25 -19 -17 -15 -10 7 18 15 19 14 7 3 SHEAR DIR 217 225 336 1 341 328 313 316 325 341 311 285 281 282 277 274 273 SST (C) 22.3 22.6 22.4 22.0 21.7 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.3 23.3 24.8 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.8 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 84 88 86 82 78 76 77 79 84 98 114 121 125 128 133 130 132 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.1 -57.2 -57.2 -56.6 -55.5 -54.3 -53.4 -53.1 -51.3 -50.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.6 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 45 39 42 47 46 47 37 25 19 25 28 29 36 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 16 14 12 11 14 17 13 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 86 82 70 46 32 36 53 72 56 70 51 17 -16 -40 -43 -37 200 MB DIV 32 -8 -55 -89 -88 -34 -29 -57 -74 -99 -96 -65 -41 -24 -6 8 28 700-850 TADV 8 9 7 -6 0 -5 -3 -6 -9 -13 -14 -5 -4 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1913 1850 1781 1691 1585 1416 1329 1292 1169 918 665 735 947 1165 1394 1646 1893 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.9 23.5 23.9 24.0 23.6 23.0 22.7 22.6 21.4 18.3 15.0 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.6 137.3 138.1 139.1 140.2 141.8 142.5 142.8 144.0 146.2 148.6 149.7 149.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 5 3 3 8 16 19 15 10 11 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -14. -27. -42. -59. -71. -74. -76. -76. -76. -81. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 22. 26. 24. 19. 13. 7. 3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -4. -10. -15. -17. -18. -18. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -28. -38. -49. -72. -95.-108.-118.-125.-126.-130.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.3 136.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 01/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 800.8 to -82.5 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 01/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##