* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/10/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 46 42 35 30 25 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 51 46 42 35 30 25 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 49 45 41 34 30 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 8 5 5 10 11 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 198 234 233 230 241 274 283 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.5 23.8 23.2 22.8 22.1 21.5 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 107 100 94 89 82 75 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 49 43 41 39 36 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 -3 -9 -21 -20 -32 -38 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -27 -16 -2 9 -32 -14 -20 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 5 4 6 9 5 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 606 626 648 689 739 859 973 1096 1231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.3 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.8 119.6 120.5 121.3 122.9 124.3 125.6 127.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -28. -32. -36. -40. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -25. -30. -35. -40. -41. -43. -44. -46. -47. -48. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.9 118.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/10/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/10/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##