* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/09/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 73 71 69 62 53 45 37 31 24 22 21 20 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 70 73 73 71 69 62 53 45 37 31 24 22 21 20 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 73 71 67 57 48 39 33 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 7 7 10 8 11 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 1 -3 1 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 229 234 227 228 214 226 240 238 251 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.2 25.9 25.6 24.9 23.5 22.7 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 126 122 119 111 97 88 80 75 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 57 55 50 45 44 41 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 15 14 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 20 16 9 1 -13 -11 -25 -25 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -18 -27 -20 -24 -4 6 11 -10 -15 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 4 3 7 8 7 9 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 503 505 531 574 601 677 765 873 980 1069 1148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.4 118.2 120.0 121.6 123.0 124.2 125.2 126.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -29. -33. -36. -40. -43. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -1. -8. -17. -25. -33. -39. -46. -48. -49. -50. -50. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.9 114.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/09/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/09/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##