* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 39 41 42 43 41 38 36 34 31 27 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 39 41 42 43 41 38 36 34 31 27 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 39 38 35 31 28 24 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 6 11 6 11 11 10 12 8 9 10 13 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 -3 -5 0 -2 -1 2 -3 0 -1 0 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 191 120 172 202 165 185 180 204 205 237 206 233 214 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.9 26.8 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.1 22.3 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 150 143 132 120 111 102 92 84 81 80 83 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 68 66 62 58 49 45 41 38 36 36 35 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 13 15 14 14 14 13 12 10 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 21 23 30 43 35 31 28 9 13 0 2 -8 -1 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 21 23 19 12 11 -19 -36 -13 -30 -7 -33 -6 -16 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -5 0 9 5 5 4 0 5 4 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 609 562 503 469 462 477 542 645 707 798 929 1067 1201 1383 1558 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.3 22.2 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.2 24.2 23.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.1 111.8 112.6 113.4 115.0 116.8 118.6 120.1 121.7 123.4 124.9 126.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 13 13 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 10. 6. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 110.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 16.1% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.7% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##