* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 08/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 29 30 31 32 31 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 29 30 31 32 31 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 14 10 10 0 5 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 0 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 67 69 77 69 26 31 287 243 230 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 130 129 128 125 120 119 118 120 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 58 58 54 51 45 40 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -16 -16 -18 -22 -37 -18 -8 14 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 60 101 106 79 -12 -31 -2 -29 -21 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 0 2 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2316 2265 2214 2159 2105 2045 2058 2160 2186 1967 1740 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.3 16.8 16.9 16.7 16.3 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.2 131.0 130.7 130.5 130.3 130.5 131.1 132.4 134.3 136.5 138.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 4 5 8 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 131.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 08/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 08/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##