* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 08/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 33 32 34 38 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 33 32 34 38 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 27 26 25 24 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 18 15 13 13 10 5 5 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 61 59 61 70 53 40 74 188 207 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.0 25.9 25.6 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 129 129 128 121 120 119 125 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 55 55 58 56 52 46 41 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 7 8 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -16 -19 -19 -18 -31 -30 -11 5 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 38 49 91 91 37 -22 -14 1 -27 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2339 2292 2245 2191 2136 2051 2039 2115 2230 2128 1862 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.9 16.6 16.7 16.5 16.1 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.3 131.1 130.8 130.6 130.3 130.2 130.7 131.7 132.9 135.0 137.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 8 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 131.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 08/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 08/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##