* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/31/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 24 23 25 29 31 35 36 37 37 36 37 37 37 38 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 24 23 25 29 31 35 36 37 37 36 37 37 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 23 22 20 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 21 15 10 14 14 14 10 9 6 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 5 1 0 -2 0 0 -3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 94 107 120 101 71 54 61 89 113 129 143 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 138 137 136 131 128 124 122 121 122 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 49 51 50 48 50 47 47 45 41 33 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -17 -17 -23 -29 -12 -29 -20 -24 -7 7 26 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -30 -14 -2 6 37 5 -14 -50 -28 11 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2287 2304 2322 2309 2296 2248 2160 2081 2051 2093 2203 2229 2094 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.2 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.2 130.4 130.5 130.5 130.4 130.2 130.1 130.3 131.1 132.5 134.0 135.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 2 2 4 5 3 3 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -5. -1. 1. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 129.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.57 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 3.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##