* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/31/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 29 28 28 32 32 36 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 29 28 28 32 32 36 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 27 26 24 23 22 21 21 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 21 19 16 16 15 12 12 10 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 3 4 0 0 -1 1 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 91 91 98 108 110 92 71 72 53 64 82 104 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.0 25.8 25.7 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 138 137 137 133 129 126 121 120 120 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 49 51 50 49 49 46 45 42 36 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 0 -14 -8 -20 -16 -13 -22 -10 -15 8 11 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 -6 -18 -12 -6 -14 34 -3 -5 -45 -12 -24 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2224 2266 2308 2306 2305 2272 2200 2089 2020 2022 2099 2240 2167 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.1 15.3 16.0 16.5 16.8 16.6 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.5 129.9 130.2 130.4 130.5 130.5 130.3 130.1 129.9 130.4 131.6 133.1 134.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 2 2 3 5 5 3 4 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -3. -3. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.1 129.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.14 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 6.2% 5.8% 4.1% 2.5% 5.7% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.9% 2.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##