* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/31/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 42 41 39 40 42 46 49 50 50 50 51 51 50 50 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 42 41 39 40 42 46 49 50 50 50 51 51 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 39 37 36 35 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 16 20 17 14 12 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 1 3 5 1 -1 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 100 104 98 98 109 72 62 61 45 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 140 140 138 139 137 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 45 46 48 47 49 49 48 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 21 5 -11 -17 -19 -10 -15 -18 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 31 18 -14 -8 -7 7 39 56 30 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2089 2146 2200 2230 2260 2258 2217 2162 2067 2012 1997 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.0 15.5 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.8 129.4 129.7 130.0 130.2 130.1 129.8 129.5 129.3 129.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 4 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 128.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.1% 10.1% 8.7% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##