* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 42 42 42 43 44 45 46 47 47 47 47 48 48 49 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 42 42 42 43 44 45 46 47 47 47 47 48 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 43 41 40 39 37 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 22 19 15 16 15 16 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 -2 0 4 6 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 81 83 89 97 92 94 70 64 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 146 144 144 145 141 135 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 40 42 45 46 48 50 51 55 58 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 59 45 41 36 3 -3 -2 36 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 52 37 37 21 -16 -19 5 31 67 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1809 1892 1977 2045 2114 2171 2137 2031 1915 1823 1741 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.4 127.2 127.9 128.5 129.1 129.1 128.1 127.3 126.8 126.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 4 2 3 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 125.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.05 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 15.0% 9.8% 7.9% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.1% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/30/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##