* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 46 48 50 51 50 48 48 47 47 46 46 45 44 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 46 48 50 51 50 48 48 47 47 46 46 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 45 44 42 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 18 19 18 17 20 22 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 6 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 84 80 70 85 107 82 75 62 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 143 144 143 144 143 143 142 135 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 44 44 49 51 54 56 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 63 70 51 46 33 14 36 74 94 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 34 30 22 36 54 -1 33 40 31 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1622 1703 1785 1848 1911 1990 2015 1962 1845 1679 1501 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.5 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.6 14.1 14.7 16.0 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.4 125.1 125.7 126.4 127.1 127.4 127.2 126.3 125.4 124.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 123.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.6% 13.1% 12.0% 7.2% 12.4% 11.4% 8.6% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.0% 2.4% 4.1% 3.8% 2.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##