* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 45 47 48 49 47 44 42 42 41 40 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 45 47 48 49 47 44 42 42 41 40 40 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 45 44 41 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 16 15 20 24 26 25 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 3 2 0 -2 0 4 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 97 88 85 84 89 97 88 93 64 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 142 141 141 140 141 140 139 128 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 54 48 50 52 55 62 67 72 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 111 101 112 135 120 122 102 100 74 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 42 48 55 55 52 49 52 112 75 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 5 6 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1398 1483 1570 1631 1693 1762 1754 1653 1499 1295 1044 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.1 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.8 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.0 122.8 123.3 123.8 124.4 124.4 123.8 123.3 122.3 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 2 2 6 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.4 121.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.36 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 19.3% 13.9% 12.1% 0.0% 14.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.7% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% 4.7% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##