* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 47 49 50 51 48 46 44 43 42 41 40 38 38 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 49 50 51 48 46 44 43 42 41 40 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 45 43 41 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 13 16 21 22 23 28 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 125 113 103 97 91 83 89 75 88 96 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 142 141 140 139 140 138 133 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 49 51 54 60 65 69 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 116 120 128 128 136 120 113 99 84 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 58 65 62 68 65 48 43 83 69 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1319 1399 1479 1543 1608 1700 1754 1699 1552 1409 1291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.1 13.9 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.2 122.0 122.6 123.2 123.9 124.4 124.2 123.5 123.0 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 5 4 1 4 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 120.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.3% 17.3% 16.3% 10.0% 15.4% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.8% 6.4% 5.6% 3.4% 5.2% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##