* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 08/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 41 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 41 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 43 37 33 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 4 8 9 14 15 19 24 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 1 1 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 308 334 298 302 293 249 228 184 205 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.3 20.5 20.5 20.0 18.9 18.6 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 82 78 77 74 66 66 61 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 58 59 54 53 46 46 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 22 20 18 15 14 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 22 8 -3 -13 -36 -21 -14 3 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 3 2 -7 0 5 -1 22 -18 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 3 -4 0 0 0 -12 -20 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 971 965 971 997 1036 1005 878 748 588 461 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.4 25.2 27.0 28.8 30.8 32.6 34.2 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.2 122.9 123.5 124.3 125.0 126.0 126.6 126.9 126.5 126.0 125.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. -32. -36. -41. -46. -51. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -20. -24. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -20. -27. -35. -41. -46. -56. -66. -78. -81. -86. -91. -96.-102.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.0 122.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 08/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 08/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##