* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 08/01/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 45 39 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 45 39 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 50 44 39 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 5 3 9 5 14 13 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 2 3 1 0 -1 0 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 244 284 326 275 302 241 237 197 207 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 22.8 22.2 21.7 21.4 20.7 20.1 19.8 19.2 18.4 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 90 84 79 75 68 62 60 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 62 59 55 48 47 40 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 23 21 18 16 13 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 32 27 23 10 -2 -26 -25 -13 -8 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 17 0 -2 -2 -3 -8 15 -19 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 1 3 5 -1 5 -3 -2 -10 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 956 948 952 959 979 1009 947 804 678 562 456 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.1 22.8 23.7 24.5 26.1 27.8 29.8 31.4 32.8 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.0 122.7 123.4 124.1 125.3 126.3 126.7 126.5 126.3 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. -36. -40. -46. -50. -55. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -22. -26. -30. -28. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -21. -31. -40. -48. -56. -66. -78. -81. -84. -88. -92. -98.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.3 121.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 08/01/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 08/01/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##