* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 08/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 62 56 50 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 67 62 56 50 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 60 53 47 36 29 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 8 5 5 7 10 10 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 0 4 4 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 206 218 263 326 294 312 252 228 195 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.0 23.0 22.3 21.8 21.2 20.2 20.1 19.7 19.0 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 103 92 85 80 74 63 61 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 64 61 58 52 48 43 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 27 26 25 24 20 17 14 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 33 30 26 -4 -5 -33 -27 -12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 39 19 0 0 2 0 -3 18 0 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 3 5 7 -3 4 1 -2 -9 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 964 958 941 936 944 997 989 870 760 661 534 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.6 25.2 27.0 28.6 30.2 31.7 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.1 121.8 122.5 123.2 124.6 125.7 126.2 126.5 126.5 126.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -22. -28. -34. -39. -44. -49. -54. -58. -63. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -25. -29. -33. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -20. -33. -44. -54. -61. -71. -80. -82. -84. -86. -89. -93. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.4 120.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 08/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 08/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##