* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/31/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 65 59 46 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 65 59 46 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 67 61 54 42 33 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 7 9 9 6 6 5 11 11 12 20 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 1 -2 -1 3 0 1 -1 -3 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 211 167 202 243 313 303 312 244 224 205 197 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.9 23.9 23.0 21.8 21.2 20.3 20.2 19.7 19.0 18.4 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 112 102 92 80 73 64 63 60 60 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 68 65 58 55 51 50 46 46 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 29 27 23 20 17 14 13 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 38 50 37 29 0 0 -23 -17 -12 12 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 50 46 30 6 10 -8 14 -6 19 7 36 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 8 5 6 -3 4 2 1 -6 -14 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 953 953 967 968 963 959 1007 1019 884 774 659 537 430 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.9 23.5 25.2 26.8 28.8 30.3 31.6 33.1 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.8 120.5 121.3 122.0 123.3 124.7 125.9 126.7 126.8 126.4 126.2 126.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -26. -33. -39. -45. -51. -57. -61. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -17. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -17. -24. -26. -29. -29. -30. -27. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -16. -29. -40. -52. -61. -67. -75. -81. -92. -94. -97.-100.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.9 119.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/31/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/31/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##