* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/31/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 74 70 57 44 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 74 70 57 44 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 73 68 62 49 38 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 5 7 10 4 8 4 10 4 8 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 1 -1 2 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 193 228 165 190 289 300 314 291 267 239 173 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.0 22.3 21.5 20.9 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.5 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 118 113 111 102 85 76 70 62 61 59 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 70 68 61 55 53 48 47 46 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 28 27 24 22 18 16 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 40 50 51 35 18 1 -11 -26 -33 -7 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 40 35 31 19 -8 -1 -1 3 -7 1 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 4 6 4 0 0 2 0 0 -8 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 945 941 950 970 974 973 1003 1054 1018 930 830 723 637 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.5 24.0 25.5 27.2 28.4 29.3 30.5 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.0 119.8 120.5 121.2 122.7 124.1 125.3 126.6 126.9 126.5 126.3 126.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 8 5 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -27. -35. -41. -47. -54. -60. -64. -68. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -8. -16. -21. -26. -27. -27. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -6. -10. -23. -36. -50. -60. -70. -75. -79. -87. -88. -90. -93. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.3 118.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/31/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 7.0% 4.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 2.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/31/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##