* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/30/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 80 79 72 61 49 37 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 80 79 72 61 49 37 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 74 70 60 50 40 33 27 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 1 4 4 3 7 5 10 5 11 12 11 13 14 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 321 299 90 182 172 172 284 301 315 289 273 254 241 199 183 170 162 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.4 25.6 25.1 24.4 22.6 21.7 21.2 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 128 119 114 107 88 78 73 68 66 64 63 61 60 64 67 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 73 71 68 63 61 57 53 48 42 42 40 42 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 28 27 29 27 24 21 18 16 13 13 12 11 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 31 40 36 45 60 41 30 8 4 -28 -26 -18 -26 -24 -22 -28 200 MB DIV 44 50 54 41 38 56 -20 -7 7 5 4 -16 -4 -12 -1 -7 10 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 5 4 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 -2 LAND (KM) 967 971 961 964 978 1015 1009 1037 1106 1134 1074 1021 979 943 927 890 899 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.6 22.0 23.2 24.6 25.9 27.1 28.1 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.5 118.3 119.1 119.8 121.2 122.7 124.0 125.5 126.6 127.4 127.9 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. -39. -45. -51. -57. -63. -68. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -21. -20. -19. -20. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -1. -8. -19. -31. -43. -53. -61. -65. -69. -74. -80. -89. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.8 116.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 14.0% 7.2% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 11.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##