* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 84 85 83 75 66 53 41 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 83 84 85 83 75 66 53 41 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 83 80 76 66 55 44 36 30 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 7 6 6 6 8 6 5 4 6 9 14 14 13 14 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 300 305 300 102 120 148 233 307 319 292 269 252 233 210 182 157 156 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.5 25.7 25.0 23.2 21.9 21.5 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.6 20.4 20.4 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 128 120 113 94 80 76 71 69 69 68 65 63 63 59 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 72 72 70 64 61 59 55 52 47 45 44 45 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 29 29 27 25 22 19 17 15 13 12 12 10 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 33 44 43 63 42 41 19 32 1 -18 -18 -25 -30 -12 -7 200 MB DIV 70 63 85 82 81 71 -9 -5 10 12 0 8 -7 12 -16 9 4 700-850 TADV 0 4 6 1 1 4 0 5 -2 4 1 4 2 2 0 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 961 967 974 958 953 982 980 996 1067 1151 1159 1107 1045 990 940 851 791 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.8 20.1 21.6 22.9 23.8 24.9 26.1 27.3 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.9 120.4 121.9 123.3 124.7 126.1 127.3 128.2 128.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -11. -18. -24. -30. -36. -42. -48. -53. -59. -64. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -17. -21. -22. -21. -19. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 3. -5. -14. -27. -39. -47. -55. -61. -65. -70. -76. -84. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.2 115.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.9% 23.9% 21.8% 20.9% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 23.2% 15.1% 9.6% 3.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.7% 16.1% 12.4% 10.3% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##