* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 94 97 100 97 87 73 58 45 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 88 94 97 100 97 87 73 58 45 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 88 93 94 93 84 72 59 47 37 31 26 23 19 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 7 7 6 2 7 4 4 5 14 15 19 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 1 -3 0 -4 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 21 2 15 49 94 75 291 353 277 254 258 245 250 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.9 25.7 24.5 22.9 21.9 21.5 21.1 21.0 21.0 21.1 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 140 133 120 108 91 80 76 72 70 70 71 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 74 73 69 65 62 61 59 55 52 49 42 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 30 32 31 29 27 24 21 18 16 14 13 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 29 32 42 51 57 69 61 70 56 44 27 17 17 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 77 74 95 89 43 20 8 14 8 4 12 0 -9 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 1 3 1 0 0 0 2 -2 3 1 4 4 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 966 974 991 999 987 984 1031 1031 1076 1150 1254 1232 1221 1236 1267 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.9 19.2 20.4 21.8 22.7 23.8 25.0 26.0 26.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.5 118.3 119.7 121.2 122.8 124.1 125.6 127.2 128.4 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -26. -31. -37. -42. -48. -53. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -18. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 17. 20. 17. 7. -7. -22. -35. -45. -54. -61. -68. -75. -76. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.8% 48.3% 39.6% 27.6% 21.6% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 50.3% 50.5% 39.1% 34.8% 18.4% 10.2% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 46.1% 12.4% 9.7% 8.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 48.4% 37.1% 29.5% 23.7% 13.8% 9.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 43.0% 59.0% 53.0% 35.0% 31.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##