* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 89 97 102 107 101 87 70 54 42 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 79 89 97 102 107 101 87 70 54 42 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 78 86 91 94 93 83 69 56 44 36 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 6 3 3 4 7 4 4 5 3 2 12 17 20 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 24 8 352 44 76 56 304 313 341 239 253 261 254 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.1 24.9 23.7 22.0 21.6 21.3 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 145 140 124 112 99 81 77 73 72 71 71 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 73 71 68 62 61 57 56 58 52 48 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 32 32 32 32 30 27 23 21 18 17 15 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 31 36 46 61 82 89 90 73 70 40 24 22 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 128 96 74 72 89 83 31 1 11 0 11 9 8 -4 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 4 -1 1 2 5 6 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1012 1002 1005 1017 1025 1029 1068 1085 1118 1184 1254 1287 1276 1296 1357 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.2 18.4 19.7 21.0 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.2 26.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.3 116.2 117.1 117.9 119.5 121.1 122.7 124.3 125.7 126.9 128.1 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -30. -35. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 27. 32. 37. 31. 17. 0. -16. -28. -40. -48. -56. -64. -65. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.8 114.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 15.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 11.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 11.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 61.7% 70.7% 64.6% 57.1% 50.0% 35.8% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 65.5% 77.3% 66.7% 65.2% 45.3% 36.9% 2.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 45.4% 40.0% 39.4% 32.3% 16.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 57.5% 62.7% 56.9% 51.5% 37.3% 24.7% 6.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 59.0% 80.0% 63.0% 44.0% 31.0% 43.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##