* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 82 88 95 96 89 75 61 50 40 30 23 17 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 60 66 73 82 88 95 96 89 75 61 50 40 30 23 17 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 73 76 81 80 72 60 47 38 31 27 24 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 5 4 4 6 3 7 1 4 8 12 16 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 2 0 0 -4 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 236 68 93 56 42 24 339 302 353 242 232 241 262 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 27.9 26.7 25.4 24.1 22.5 21.6 21.2 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 147 147 143 131 117 104 87 77 73 71 70 71 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 73 72 72 70 67 64 61 59 60 59 54 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 30 31 31 32 32 29 25 22 20 17 16 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 32 25 35 51 61 107 95 95 76 52 34 25 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 132 95 99 96 84 44 31 29 1 7 10 9 2 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 2 -1 1 2 4 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 996 970 957 962 982 989 1026 1047 1079 1135 1218 1251 1254 1292 1370 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 25.4 26.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.2 115.0 116.0 116.9 118.6 120.3 121.8 123.5 125.1 126.6 127.8 128.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 11 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 7. 9. 5. 1. -3. -6. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 22. 28. 35. 36. 29. 15. 1. -10. -20. -30. -37. -43. -44. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.5 113.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 13.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 15.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 13.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 9.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -9.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.7% 68.3% 64.1% 57.3% 47.8% 47.9% 21.3% 0.0% Logistic: 30.0% 57.9% 44.4% 37.8% 16.5% 32.2% 6.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 11.0% 15.8% 15.8% 8.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 25.9% 47.3% 41.4% 34.4% 21.8% 27.1% 9.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 40.0% 69.0% 50.0% 45.0% 27.0% 33.0% 12.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##