* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 53 59 72 83 88 90 84 75 66 56 49 42 36 30 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 53 59 72 83 88 90 84 75 66 56 49 42 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 51 54 64 75 79 76 66 54 44 36 30 25 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 8 8 5 1 3 4 7 8 3 5 2 3 7 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 14 9 18 352 328 43 5 22 105 106 7 14 346 286 302 307 306 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 26.8 25.4 24.0 23.2 21.8 21.1 20.7 20.6 20.8 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 154 152 149 145 132 117 102 93 79 71 67 66 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 74 75 75 73 73 70 66 63 57 59 54 52 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 25 29 34 35 34 33 29 27 24 22 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 41 40 38 48 45 59 66 90 82 72 61 59 44 32 -1 200 MB DIV 39 84 99 110 117 122 81 110 85 56 -1 2 -8 4 -3 20 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -8 -13 -12 -3 -3 0 -1 0 -1 2 -1 3 0 5 2 LAND (KM) 861 892 931 971 996 969 983 1009 1015 1083 1115 1156 1189 1268 1335 1344 1337 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.4 16.6 17.8 19.1 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.5 111.3 112.2 113.0 114.7 116.6 118.5 120.0 121.7 123.2 124.6 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 18 16 14 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 10. 7. 2. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 20. 18. 13. 8. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 14. 27. 38. 43. 45. 39. 30. 21. 11. 4. -3. -8. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 109.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.97 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 22.5% 20.3% 19.6% 0.0% 24.0% 41.7% 20.7% Logistic: 0.8% 8.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.6% 7.2% 13.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 3.1% 10.5% 8.2% 7.2% 0.2% 10.4% 18.5% 7.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 35.0% 21.0% 13.0% 10.0% 23.0% 22.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##