* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 51 54 62 71 83 88 86 82 73 65 58 52 46 40 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 51 54 62 71 83 88 86 82 73 65 58 52 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 54 61 70 78 80 73 62 51 42 35 30 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 13 11 10 0 6 7 9 6 7 2 2 5 7 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 2 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 1 -2 -1 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 28 18 4 348 129 19 24 43 82 113 286 316 256 276 286 295 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 27.8 26.5 24.9 23.8 22.6 21.8 21.2 20.6 20.6 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 157 157 155 151 150 142 128 112 100 87 78 72 66 65 67 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 73 72 75 75 74 73 72 71 68 66 63 62 60 57 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 21 25 27 32 33 32 31 27 25 22 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 25 37 36 41 43 40 44 41 53 64 88 68 68 53 52 28 3 200 MB DIV 63 59 84 110 106 95 79 80 112 81 38 -4 10 -16 -7 20 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -7 -10 -11 -11 -7 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 818 860 912 946 990 1004 1005 1036 1048 1081 1106 1123 1184 1243 1307 1315 1333 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.7 15.7 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.4 21.5 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.5 110.5 111.4 112.3 114.0 115.8 117.5 119.2 120.8 122.3 123.7 125.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 23 18 17 15 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 6. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 18. 22. 19. 18. 12. 8. 5. 3. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 9. 17. 26. 38. 43. 41. 37. 28. 20. 13. 7. 1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.8 108.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 19.3% 17.8% 17.1% 0.0% 19.8% 31.7% 20.3% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 6.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 2.3% 7.2% 6.2% 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% 12.8% 7.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 24.0% 15.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##